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The world is heading toward a demographic milestone: under the most realistic global development scenario, humanity will surpass ten billion people around the year 2065. That is the central finding of a newly updated set of long‑term population projections produced by demographers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) in Vienna.
Their new projection model, known as WIC2023, integrates the latest global data on population, education, and migration — and, crucially, the demographic impacts of the Covid‑19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The result is a picture of a world that continues to grow longer than previously expected, even as fertility rates decline and climate pressures intensify.
A “Middle‑of‑the‑Road” Future: The Scenario Behind the Numbers
The researchers base their calculations on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways — the same scenario framework used by the IPCC to model climate futures. Their central assumption is SSP2, often described as the “middle road” or “continuation of current trends”. Under this pathway:
- Income inequality widens rather than narrows
- International cooperation improves only slightly
- Environmental degradation continues
- Population growth slows but does not stop
In this world, humanity grows from today’s 8‑plus billion to just over 10 billion between 2065 and 2070, peaking around 10.13 billion in the early 2080s before declining slightly to 9.88 billion by 2100.
Regional populations at century’s end would look roughly like this:
- Asia: 4.5 billion
- Africa: more than 3.5 billion
- Europe: 671 million
- Latin America: 669 million
- North America: 450 million
- Oceania: 62 million
Each of these regions reflects different demographic dynamics — from Africa’s youthful age structure to Europe’s aging societies.
Why the New Forecast Is Higher Than Previous Ones
Compared with earlier WIC projections — WIC2013 and WIC2018 — the new numbers are noticeably higher. The 2013 model expected a global peak of 9.4 billion around 2070; the 2018 update raised that to 9.7 billion. Now, the peak surpasses 10 billion.
Why the jump?
According to Anne Goujon, head of IIASA’s Population and Just Societies program, several developments reshaped the demographic landscape:
- Child mortality has fallen faster than expected, especially in parts of sub‑Saharan Africa
- Vaccination campaigns, improved hygiene, and international aid have accelerated survival gains
- Fertility declines have been slower in several countries, despite rising education levels
- New census data — such as Pakistan’s 2017 census — revealed significantly larger populations than previously assumed
- Covid‑19 caused a temporary mortality spike, but life expectancy has already begun to recover
In Pakistan alone, updated data forced demographers to add 150 million people to the country’s projected 2100 population.
Education, Fertility, and the Surprising Complexity of Demographic Change
One of the most intriguing findings concerns the relationship between education and fertility. Traditionally, higher education levels — especially for women — correlate with lower birth rates. But in several countries, this decline has been slower than models predicted.
Why? Researchers are still investigating. Possible explanations include:
- Delayed effects: fertility may fall only after education translates into real employment opportunities
- Cultural norms: persistent ideals about family size may slow behavioral change
- Economic stagnation: educated women without access to jobs may remain in traditional family structures
Goujon expects fertility in the Global South to decline eventually — but the timing remains uncertain.
Climate Change: The Wildcard That Could Upend Everything
The projections assume that climate change, while disruptive, does not render large regions uninhabitable. But alternative scenarios exist.
Under a “fossil‑fuel pathway”, where emissions remain high and warming accelerates, the world could see:
- More extreme heat
- Widespread displacement
- Sharp declines in population due to uninhabitable zones and economic collapse
In other words, demographic futures are tightly bound to climate futures — and vice versa.
“I’m Not Afraid of the Number of People — I’m Afraid of What They Do”
For Goujon, the prospect of ten billion people is not inherently alarming. What matters is how humanity chooses to live:
“I’m not afraid of the number of people, but of what they do.”
If societies become more sustainable, innovative, and cooperative, she argues, the planet can support a larger population. If not, the pressures on ecosystems, resources, and climate could become overwhelming.
What This Means for the Future
The WIC2023 projections offer a sobering but not fatalistic message:
- Population growth will continue longer than expected
- Education and health improvements remain powerful drivers of change
- Climate policy will shape demographic realities
- Migration will remain a major global force
- The world of 2100 will be more populous, more urban, and more interconnected
The next decades will test humanity’s ability to adapt — not just to a larger population, but to the environmental and social challenges that accompany it.
- source: orf.at/picture: pixabay.com
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